Почему позиции обожженного нефтяного кокса все еще трудно полностью пошатнуть в промышленной сфере? 

The status of calcined petroleum coke (CPC) in the industrial sector remains difficult to fully shake, at its core, because it achieves a near-perfect balance among cost, performance, and scale — a combination that no other material has been able to replicate.

Its irreplaceability can be broken down into three interconnected layers:

Cost Advantage: Outright Leadership from Price to the Whole Value Chain

In the industrial world, cost is often the decisive factor.

As a fuel, it offers outstanding cost-performance: Petroleum coke has a very high calorific value, roughly 1.5 to 2 times that of coal. Even high-sulfur petroleum coke, when used as fuel in industrial furnaces such as cement kilns, can significantly lower fuel costs compared to coal. For example, some studies indicate that, at the right price, petroleum coke can replace coal 100%, and at a 40% substitution rate, the cost per ton of clinker can be reduced by about 8 yuan.

Cost reduction and efficiency gains throughout the value chain: The production process of CPC itself is designed for cost optimization. For instance, advanced shaft calcining furnaces can directly utilize the volatile matter released during the calcination process as a heat source, requiring no additional fuel. The high-temperature waste heat from calcination can also be recovered for power generation or heating, further enhancing the overall economic and environmental performance of the industry chain.

Performance Barrier: “Tailor-Made” for Critical Industrial Processes

CPC is more than just a carbon material; its properties are precisely aligned with the demanding requirements of foundational industries like aluminum and steel.

The “lifeline” of the aluminum industry: The global aluminum industry is the largest consumer of CPC, with enormous volumes. After calcination at around 1300°C, the electrical conductivity, density, and mechanical strength of petroleum coke are greatly enhanced. This “calcined coke” is the core raw material for producing prebaked anodes for electrolytic aluminum production, and currently, no other material can fully replace it when considering both cost and performance.

Irreplaceable in specific high-end applications: In the field of graphite electrodes for steelmaking, high-quality low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke (such as Grade 1 coke from Fushun Petrochemical in China) is considered virtually “irreplaceable.” Especially in Northeast China, this high-quality raw material resource constitutes a supply barrier that is difficult to replicate.

Market Demand: A Vast and Stable Foundation

The market foundation for CPC is exceptionally deep and continues to expand.

Massive and growing market size: Data shows that the global calcined petroleum coke market reached approximately $14.273 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $17.471 billion by 2032. Another report indicates that the overall petroleum coke market was valued at $19.36 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow steadily to $25.54 billion by 2031. Such a vast market scale alone makes its position difficult to be quickly shaken.

Shift from old to new growth drivers: While the traditional graphite electrode market has seen slowing demand due to volatility in the steel industry, emerging sectors like lithium batteries have become new growth engines. With ongoing technological iteration, the demand for low-sulfur calcined coke for lithium battery anode materials has not only not decreased but has actually increased, providing strong market support.

Challenges and Boundaries: Not Without Risks

Of course, its stable position does not mean it is without challenges. Environmental regulations are the biggest variable:

Environmental pressure: Regulations such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are eroding the cost advantage of high-sulfur coke, pushing the market toward lower-emission raw materials.

Risk of cost inversion: When the price of raw material (green coke) rises due to demand from sectors like anode materials, downstream calcining plants may face thin profit margins due to higher costs, leading to production cuts or even shutdowns.

Summary

In short, CPC’s position stems from the fact that it serves as both the “bread and butter” of modern industry (especially aluminum and steel) and an energy and material source that is intensely cost-effective. Its alternatives—such as anthracite coal and biochar—either fall short in critical performance, lack cost competitiveness, or cannot support such a vast industrial demand.

Therefore, in the foreseeable future, it will remain a key link bridging the energy and materials sectors. Its position will be reinforced through continuous technological upgrades rather than easily replaced.